Mostly Right — Live weather data

About

Trade weather markets with the actual weather in front of you.

Mostly Right puts ground-truth NOAA data directly on Kalshi and Polymarket temperature market pages — the same station observations these markets settle on, right next to the odds.

WHAT YOU GET
• Live observations from the settlement station: temperature, dewpoint, humidity, wind — with the raw METAR text on hover.
• A full-day timeline: observed temperatures so far, condition icons, and a NOW marker, aligned to the market's local settlement day.
• Model forecasts side by side: GFS, HRRR, ECMWF, ICON, Météo-France, JMA and more, plus MOS guidance for US stations — each model's projected day high and an hour-by-hour temperature heatmap.
• Switch models instantly and see which ones are running hot or cold against the observations.

COVERAGE
• Kalshi: daily high/low temperature markets for 19 US cities.
• Polymarket: daily temperature markets for 40 international airports.
• On a market we don't cover yet? Hit "Request data" and tell us what you trade — requests decide what goes live next.

SOURCES
Observations from NOAA/NWS aviation weather (METAR/ASOS) and the Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive. Forecasts via Open-Meteo and IEM MOS. Every number is sourced and timestamped, so you can judge the implied odds against reality without leaving the page.

NO SETUP
No account and no configuration — install, open a covered market, and the panel is there. °F/°C units, the forecast trend line, and a usage-data opt-out live in the panel's settings. You can also ask for email alerts on the markets you care about.

FOR DEVELOPERS
The same data powers the Mostly Right SDK on npm (@mostlyrightmd/weather). The extension is the live demo.

Mostly Right is independent and not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Data is informational only and is not financial advice.